Sequence risk calculator

A bad first decade hurts most.

Built and reviewed by Dovanic, Founder and editor, FreeByteLast reviewed: 2026-08-18

Pot at retirement

Yearly withdrawal

Return in the first 5 years

-3%

Return after that

Pot lasts

34 years

Pot after 5 bad years

$454,951

With these inputs, pot lasts comes to 34 years. Pot after 5 bad years works out to $454,951. The result assumes return in the first 5 years stays at -3%.

Withdrawal rate after 5 years: 7.03%

What moves the number · Pot lasts

Input	−10%	Now	+10%
Pot at retirement	26 years	34 years	47 years
Yearly withdrawal	49 years	34 years	27 years
Return in the first 5 years	35 years	34 years	32 years
Return after that	30 years	34 years	39 years

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A bad first decade hurts most.

A worked example

Starting figures

Pot at retirement: $700,000
Yearly withdrawal: $32,000
Return in the first 5 years: -3%
Return after that: 6%

What it returns

Pot lasts: 34 years
Pot after 5 bad years: $454,951
Withdrawal rate after 5 years: 7.03%

How to read the results

With the defaults above, pot lasts works out at 34 years.

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